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I can't wait to see what the "Generals" do with the earnings reports of YHOO, INTC, EBAY among others this week. Usually at this time big money starts building big positions around now and then juice them hard into Jan 1.... It can be a constructed chart like most other years or does the chart blow up and the funds abandon it and stay away.. who knows ?
Caris & Co. analyst Rick Whittington kicks off the morning gloom for AMD with a downgrade of the stock from Above Average to Average, noting that a survey of 15 tests for Intel’s “Conroe” desktop chip showed the Intel part besting AMD’s almost 100% of the time. Concludes Whittington:
"From all reports, AMD’s response to Intel Conroe will be focused on pricing. AMD will attempt to win the performance/$ battle against Intel. To us, AMD’s “response” strategy all but admits to Intel’s superior technical position with NGA. This doesn’t bode well for AMD’s margins as Intel appears to be on their way back to dominance."
Others on the street are chiming in on the brightened outlook for Intel. Stifel Nicolaus’s Cody Acree says reports from Asian news sources are that Intel will unveil its “Merom” notebook processor ahead of schedule. Says Acree:
We believe an early launch of Merom would be another step in INTC’s turnaround story, which in our opinion is creating a substantial opportunity for investors. We believe the strengths of INTC’s new portfolio are not yet reflected in its lagging share price, a situation which we believe will be rectified in the coming months.
And, joining the pile-on, Banc of America’s Sumit Dhanda says that Apple’s new Intel-based Macs could be a factor to Intel shining brighter in the second half of the year:
[D]espite widespread market skepticism, we believe our 3Q sales forecast of 8% q/q (vs St +9%) [for Intel] is likely to prove achievable given 1) the improving inventory situation within Asia distribution, 2) the easier comps heading into 2H06 (vs. a depressed base in Q1), 3) our expectation for further share gains versus AMD … and 4) an additional boost to sales growth from the ramp of Intel based Apple computing platforms. As it relates to gross margins, we expect Intel to maintain its “implied” Q3 outlook of roughly 52%, +/- a few points (GAAP basis), given the more benign nature of the price cuts, as well as the improved mix and factory loadings in Q3. Finally … there exists the potential for slight operating margin upside through Q3, and subsequent quarters.
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