Jim's cycle trades

[Jim Smith]

CCJ....symmetrical triangle b/o

increasing volume too

[Jim Smith]

Looking for $800 gold

early 2007

[skiracer]

early 2007

Jim,
I like gold to go to $700. I'm holding the ETF from $46 and just holding. $800 would be real nice. What are your thoughts on making it go to $800?

[Jim Smith]

Gold to $800

I am using the 2005 chart and extrapolating......if we move the same % from now till Q1 2007, we'll be at $800.....the GLD is in a huge symmetrical triangle....I expect an upside breakout....The big move likely to occur when the fed reserve lowers interest rates to save the markets.....inflation be damned, the fed doesn't care.

[skiracer]

I am using the 2005 chart and extrapolating......if we move the same % from now till Q1 2007, we'll be at $800.....the GLD is in a huge symmetrical triangle....I expect an upside breakout....The big move likely to occur when the fed reserve lowers interest rates to save the markets.....inflation be damned, the fed doesn't care.

Interesting scenario. Lowering the interest rates to boost the markets again. How low do you think they will have to move down from todays levels.

[Jim Smith]

Fed lowers rates

And the long bond will rise in rate......I actually expect gold to reach $1000 within 12 months.

[ParkTwain]

Until the gains in the Chinese economy begin to raise wage rates there (and that may some number of years in coming), there is deflationary pressure on wages and prices worldwide. THAT is why the Fed and all the other OECD-type central bankers will tend to be lowering rates for the foreseeable future. The Fed doesn't want to see to much of any kind of a recession in the U.S. because of what it could do to domestic price stability.

[Jim Smith]

They don't care about inflation

they'll just monkey around with the measurement devices to show no inflation....In reality, we need to inflate our way out of debt...Or ask each US citizen to pony up $30K+ for our debt, forget that idea....So, they take the dough out the back door through inflation. The casino stocks, specifically domestic only or non Asia exposed, are acting like there's a consumer led recession coming....These stocks are actually quasi retail stocks, the ultimate retailer preying on the disposable incomes of the average consumer....

[peanuts]

...The casino stocks, specifically domestic only or non Asia exposed, are acting like there's a consumer led recession coming....These stocks are actually quasi retail stocks, the ultimate retailer preying on the disposable incomes of the average consumer....

Now THAT is an interesting way to look at domestic casino stocks. I like it- it makes sense. Did you read this somewhere, or think of it on your own? Do you know of any comparisons of past performance of domestic casino stocks and the condition of the US economy? Maybe some graphical examples? I think you're on to something, here. One thing, however, does having disposable income necessarily mean that it is going to casinos? I wonder what the disposable income/gambling revenue curve would look like...

Or even this thought: when the economy is bad, income isn't as "disposable," so people make better bets, and gambling revenue is down...

[Jim Smith]

Casino stocks

The casino as retailer is my idea but I don't see it as that profound. And, gambling is addictive for many so for people to give up gambling they must be experiencing a crimp in the budget....HET looks to be headed to $50 where I would buy with both hands.....Some like PENN might really feel the crimp as their Argosy in Lawrenceburg Indiana isn't exactly a vacation destination in of itself. Vegas might feel near term heat with their local realestate market skidding. PENN has a giant boat coming to Indiana in 2008 so their expenses are climbing at a time the "drop" might be declining.

[Jim Smith]

CAMH,,,the news gets better

guidelines now support the use of MTWA as a risk stratifier....the CEO believes this will bring the rest of the HMO's on board for reimbursement.

[Jim Smith]

CAMH gets good news

guideline by AHS says MTWA test could be used as a risk stratifier identifying sudden cardiac death patients.

[Jim Smith]

PENN....short

I think domestic only gaming takes a hit near term.

[Jim Smith]

PENN short closed

the OEX can't breakout and I suspect it won't....but, PENN doesn't want to go down so I am not forcing the issue.

[Jim Smith]

TXI...MACD divergence

worth watching......no position.